Bayesian Estimation of State-Level Crime Victimization Rates

• NCJ Number: 308785
• Date Published: November 2025
• Author(s): Emily Berg
• Length: 38 pages
• Agencies: BJS-Sponsored
• Sponsoring Agency: Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS)
• Publication Format: Document (Online)
• Publication Type: Publication; Statistics
• Country: United States of America
• Note: Produced under an Intergovernmental Personnel Act agreement, this report does not release official government statistics. The report is released to help inform interested parties of the research or analysis contained within and to encourage discussion. Any statistics included in this report are not official BJS statistics unless they have been previously published in a BJS report. Any analysis, conclusions, or opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views, opinions, or policies of BJS or the U.S. Department of Justice.

Abstract

This third-party report describes the feasibility of using model-based techniques to produce estimates of state-level crime victimization rates. Specifically, a Bayesian multivariate lognormal model was applied. Direct estimates from the National Crime Victimization Survey served as model response variables. Covariate information was derived from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program. The model incorporates multiple crime types and data for two aggregate time periods. This report presents results from applying the model to produce state-level estimates of crime victimization rates.